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Initially, Donald Trump seemed to take a resolute stance concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering statements of "significant repercussions" during the summer in case Vladimir Putin carried on hindering ceasefire discussions, Trump finally enacted considerable restrictions on Russia's biggest energy firms, these major energy companies. This action seriously impacted the Russian leader's ability to finance his war effort in the region.

Yet, through his newly presented detailed peace plan for Ukraine, reportedly developed by US and Russian officials without Ukrainian or European input, he has clearly reverted to his favorable to Russia stance.

Favoring Aggression

The former president's plan would in practice benefit the Russian leader for occupying a sovereign nation while putting Ukraine's democracy in jeopardy. Although bold statements that "The nation's autonomy will be affirmed", large portions of the plan effectively undermine that essential independence. What represents a Russian ideal would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his corporate past, Trump seems to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a mere land disagreement, implying giving Putin a portion of Ukraine's land will appease the leader. However, Putin's invasion is not merely about dominating a destroyed swath of industrial-devastated land in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about the nation's democratic governance – and Putin's obvious goal to weaken it so it stops serves as an attractive example for the Russian citizens of the accountable leadership that Putin's increasing dictatorship denies them.

Land Concessions

While keeping in place the already divided regions of these areas, the initiative would force the nation to abandon the entire Donetsk province. Aside from favoring Russia with territory that its troops have been unable to seize in over a decade of warfare, this concession would leave Ukrainian defensive positions dangerously weakened.

Donetsk is the place of Ukraine's well-known "fortress belt", the well-established defensive positions that are a essential barrier to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, leaving Putin a open route to Kyiv should he subsequently decide to resume the war.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Furthermore, in a move that would make future hostilities simpler for the Russian military, the plan would require Ukraine to cut the scale of its armed forces from their current large number troops to a limit of 600,000. Notably, the plan places no equivalent restrictions on the invading army.

In what appears as a gesture to Russia's campaign to depict the nation's chosen by the people government as radicals, Trump's proposal asserts: "All Nazi ideology and activities must be rejected and banned." Seemingly to highlight this element, it demands that "The nation will hold political contests in three months" of a peace deal. However, the proposal imposes no obligation that the Russian leader risk his regime by holding elections in his own country.

Protection Guarantees

Admittedly, the plan makes the Russian Federation pledge not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in law its policy of non-violence towards Europe and Ukraine". Yet given that the Russian leadership has violated similar agreements in the previous instances – such as the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government committed to honor Ukraine's borders in return for relinquishing its historical atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow promised to a halt in fighting and a restoration of occupied land in the region to Kyiv – how should we have confidence in Putin this time?

This explains Ukraine has been so adamant on international defense commitments. Although the initiative threatens a "decisive unified armed reaction" should Russia resume its invasion, and includes that "The nation will receive strong security guarantees", the details include unclear to alarming. The initiative would not only prevent Ukraine accession to NATO but also prohibit Nato members from stationing military personnel on the nation's land, effectively blocking the reassurance force, reportedly commanded by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to deter Russia from restoring his reduced troops, rearming, and attacking again.

International Reaction

Another side agreement reportedly would provide the nation with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any later "serious, intentional, and ongoing military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "would be considered as an assault jeopardizing the tranquility of the transatlantic community." This implies a military response. However unlike a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's best defense against renewed hostilities – the credibility of the supplementary deal would hinge on the willingness of Nato leaders, including the US administration, to react through arms to Putin's aggression, something they have {not