Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Commons Comeback

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.

Serious Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process

Several members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of sources also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.